Felgueiras 1932
vs
Leixoes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Felgueiras 1932
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.21.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
| Probability | Felgueiras 1932 | Draw | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.3% | 27.0% | 27.7% |
| Market | 37.1% | 29.4% | 33.5% |
| Final | 39.1% | 28.8% | 32.1% |
| Edge | +2.0% | -0.6% | -1.4% |
Why Felgueiras 1932
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Felgueiras 1932 below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.7% per unit staked (our 39.1% × 2.60 − 1).
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes match preview
Felgueiras 1932 will face Leixoes in the Segunda Liga on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Felgueiras 1932 has a 45% probability of winning, while Leixoes has a 28% chance, and a draw stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Felgueiras 1932, with an expected goals tally of 1.60 for them and 1.21 for Leixoes.
Recent form shows Felgueiras 1932 with a record of L-D-W-L-W-L, while Leixoes has struggled with L-L-L-L-W-D. In their last two encounters, Felgueiras 1932 has not secured a win against Leixoes, who has won both previous matches. Additionally, there is a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Felgueiras 1932 and Leixoes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
Felgueiras 1932 and Leixoes attack and defence ratings
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Felgueiras 1932 | 39.1% | 2.56 | +2.0% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Felgueiras 1932 | 39.1% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Leixoes | 32.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Felgueiras 1932 win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes stats
Felgueiras 1932 and Leixoes recent form
| Felgueiras 1932 |
LDWLWL |
| Leixoes |
LLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Felgueiras 1932 and Leixoes season so far
Felgueiras 1932 record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Leixoes record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Felgueiras 1932 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Leixoes | Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-18 | Felgueiras 1932 | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 4-0 |
| 2024-12-07 | Leixoes | Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 29.4%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.12 | 2.74 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.13 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.50 | 3.12 | 2.74 |
| Pinnacle | 2.54 | 3.22 | 2.89 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 2.87 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .