Leixoes
vs
Chaves
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leixoes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.76.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leixoes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Leixoes vs Chaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leixoes vs Chaves
| Probability | Leixoes | Draw | Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 21.8% | 30.4% |
| Market | 47.2% | 27.1% | 25.7% |
| Final | 47.3% | 25.7% | 26.9% |
| Edge | +0.2% | -1.3% | +1.2% |
Why Leixoes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.76.
Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (our 47.3% × 2.04 − 1).
Leixoes vs Chaves match preview
Leixoes and Chaves are set to face off in the Segunda Liga on November 15, 2026. According to our model, Leixoes has a 48% probability of winning, while Chaves stands at 30%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Leixoes is 2.22, compared to Chaves' 1.76, indicating a potential scoreline of 2-1, which our model predicts at 8%.
In terms of recent form, Leixoes has struggled, recording four losses in their last five matches, while Chaves has shown some resilience with two wins in their last five outings. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of goals, with our model suggesting a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows each team has one win in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leixoes and Chaves expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.98
Leixoes and Chaves attack and defence ratings
Leixoes
Chaves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leixoes vs Chaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leixoes | 47.3% | 2.11 | +0.2% | 2.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leixoes | 47.3% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Chaves | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.6% |
| No | 25.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leixoes win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Leixoes vs Chaves stats
Leixoes and Chaves recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leixoes and Chaves season so far
Leixoes record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chaves record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
Leixoes vs Chaves head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Chaves | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-16 | Leixoes | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Leixoes | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Chaves | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2022-01-24 | Leixoes | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2021-08-16 | Chaves | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2021-05-15 | Chaves | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 3-1 |
| 2021-01-16 | Leixoes | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leixoes vs Chaves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.2%, draw 27.1%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.38 | 3.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.38 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.45 | 3.76 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 2.99 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .