Portimonense
vs
Academica
Garuda Lions Prediction: Portimonense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Portimonense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Portimonense vs Academica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portimonense vs Academica
| Probability | Portimonense | Draw | Academica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.0% | 30.2% | 40.8% |
| Market | 41.0% | 28.6% | 30.4% |
| Final | 38.0% | 29.0% | 33.0% |
| Edge | -3.0% | +0.4% | +2.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (our 38.0% × 2.32 − 1).
Portimonense vs Academica match preview
Portimonense faces Academica in the Segunda Liga on November 15, 2026. According to our model, Portimonense has a 37% chance of winning, while Academica stands at 33%, and the likelihood of a draw is 29%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Portimonense, with a 9% chance. The expected goals are 1.07 for Portimonense and 1.31 for Academica, indicating a closely contested match.
Recent form shows Portimonense with a record of W-D-L-W-W-W, while Academica has D-L-W-W-W-W. Our model suggests a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portimonense and Academica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
Portimonense and Academica attack and defence ratings
Portimonense
Academica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portimonense vs Academica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portimonense | 38.0% | 2.63 | -3.0% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portimonense | 38.0% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Academica | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portimonense win | 11.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 71.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
Portimonense vs Academica stats
Portimonense and Academica recent form
| Portimonense |
WDLWWW |
| Academica |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portimonense and Academica season so far
Portimonense record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Academica record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Portimonense vs Academica head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-23 | Portimonense | Academica | Taça da Liga | 2-1 |
| 2019-10-19 | Academica | Portimonense | Taça de Portugal | 2-1 |
| 2019-08-03 | Portimonense | Academica | Taça da Liga | 2-0 |
| 2017-02-04 | Portimonense | Academica | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2016-08-24 | Academica | Portimonense | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2011-04-02 | Academica | Portimonense | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2010-11-06 | Portimonense | Academica | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portimonense vs Academica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.0%, draw 28.6%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.22 | 3.04 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.35 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.22 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.39 | 3.02 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.94 | 2.86 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .