Penafiel
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penafiel
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.23.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Penafiel is the favourite, not a value bet.
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa
| Probability | Penafiel | Draw | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.6% | 26.4% | 27.1% |
| Market | 40.8% | 30.3% | 28.9% |
| Final | 42.3% | 29.3% | 28.4% |
| Edge | +1.4% | -1.0% | -0.4% |
Why Penafiel
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.6% per unit staked (our 42.3% × 2.28 − 1).
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa match preview
Penafiel hosts Lusitânia Lourosa in a Segunda Liga clash on November 15, 2026. According to our model, Penafiel has a 47% probability of winning, while Lusitânia Lourosa stands at 27%, with a 26% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Penafiel is 1.68, compared to Lusitânia Lourosa's 1.23, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Penafiel, occurring at a 9% probability.
Recent form indicates that Penafiel has been strong at home with three wins in their last five matches, while Lusitânia Lourosa has shown mixed results with two wins in their last five. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Penafiel has secured one win and one draw against Lusitânia Lourosa, who has yet to claim victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa attack and defence ratings
Penafiel
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 42.3% | 2.37 | +1.4% | 2.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 42.3% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.0% |
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa stats
Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa recent form
| Penafiel |
WWWLLW |
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
LDDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa season so far
Penafiel record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Lusitânia Lourosa record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 30.3%, away 28.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 2.91 | 3.37 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.13 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.26 | 2.91 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 2.93 | 3.57 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 2.94 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .