Feirense
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lusitânia Lourosa
0 – 1 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.54.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa
| Probability | Feirense | Draw | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.0% | 27.5% | 60.5% |
| Market | 33.4% | 29.5% | 37.1% |
| Final | 28.0% | 29.0% | 43.0% |
| Edge | -5.4% | -0.5% | +5.8% |
Why Lusitânia Lourosa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lusitânia Lourosa below our published probability: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.0% per unit staked (our 43.0% × 2.56 − 1).
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa match preview
Feirense faces Lusitânia Lourosa in the Segunda Liga, with the model predicting a challenging match for the home side. Feirense has struggled recently, recording six consecutive games without a win, while Lusitânia Lourosa has shown better form, remaining unbeaten in their last six matches, including four wins. The probabilities suggest a 13% chance of a Feirense victory, a 27% likelihood of a draw, and a 60% chance for Lusitânia Lourosa to secure the win.
The expected goals indicate a significant disparity, with Feirense projected to score 0.62 and Lusitânia Lourosa at 1.61. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 16% probability. Both teams scoring is also forecasted at 38%, reflecting a potentially low-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Feirense and Lusitânia Lourosa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Feirense and Lusitânia Lourosa attack and defence ratings
Feirense
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 43.0% | 2.33 | +5.8% | 2.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.5% | 2.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feirense | 28.0% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 43.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.9% |
| No | 66.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win | 33.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.4% | |
| Loss | 39.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 18.2% |
| 0-2 | 14.7% | |
| 0-0 | 13.6% |
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa stats
Feirense and Lusitânia Lourosa recent form
| Feirense |
LDLLLL |
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
DDWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Feirense and Lusitânia Lourosa season so far
Feirense record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lusitânia Lourosa record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Feirense | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Feirense | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.4%, draw 29.5%, away 37.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.77 | 3.14 | 2.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.15 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.77 | 3.14 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.19 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 2.87 | 2.33 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .