Farense
vs
Benfica B
Garuda Lions Prediction: Farense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Farense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Farense vs Benfica B overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Farense vs Benfica B
| Probability | Farense | Draw | Benfica B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.6% | 31.4% | 26.9% |
| Market | 53.9% | 24.6% | 21.5% |
| Final | 50.8% | 26.3% | 22.9% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +1.7% | +1.3% |
Why Farense
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (our 50.8% × 1.78 − 1).
Farense vs Benfica B match preview
Farense hosts Benfica B in a Segunda Liga matchup, with our model assigning a 44% probability of a Farense victory, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 25% likelihood for Benfica B to win. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Farense, with a 13% chance. Expected goals are calculated at 1.31 for Farense and 0.93 for Benfica B, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Farense has recorded four wins, one draw, and one loss in their last six matches, while Benfica B has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record over the last two encounters shows each team with one victory, suggesting a competitive matchup. The probability for over 2.5 goals stands at 39%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 46%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Farense and Benfica B expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Farense and Benfica B attack and defence ratings
Farense
Benfica B
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Farense vs Benfica B markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 50.8% | 1.97 | -3.1% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 50.8% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Benfica B | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 58.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | |
| 0-0 | 12.5% |
Farense vs Benfica B stats
Farense and Benfica B recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Farense and Benfica B season so far
Farense record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benfica B record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Farense vs Benfica B head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Benfica B | Farense | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Farense | Benfica B | Segunda Liga | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Farense vs Benfica B odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.9%, draw 24.6%, away 21.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.25 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.88 | 4.33 |
| SBO | 1.64 | 3.36 | 3.82 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .