Lusitânia Lourosa
vs
Farense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lusitânia Lourosa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lusitânia Lourosa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense
| Probability | Lusitânia Lourosa | Draw | Farense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.1% | 27.5% | 34.4% |
| Market | 37.3% | 29.5% | 33.2% |
| Final | 37.5% | 29.0% | 33.5% |
| Edge | +0.2% | -0.5% | +0.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.6% per unit staked (our 37.5% × 2.60 − 1).
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense match preview
Lusitânia Lourosa faces Farense in an intriguing Segunda Liga matchup. Our model assigns a 38% probability of a Lusitânia Lourosa victory, while Farense has a 34% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 28%. The expected goals for Lusitânia Lourosa is 1.45, slightly ahead of Farense's 1.37, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Lusitânia Lourosa, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Lusitânia Lourosa has shown resilience with a streak of results including three wins, while Farense has also performed well, winning four of their last six matches. Historically, in their last two encounters, Lusitânia Lourosa has yet to secure a win against Farense, who has claimed victory in both previous meetings. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 54%, with both teams scoring expected at 58%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense attack and defence ratings
Lusitânia Lourosa
Farense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 37.5% | 2.67 | +0.2% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 37.5% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Farense | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 61.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense stats
Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense recent form
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
DWDWWW |
| Farense |
LWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense season so far
Lusitânia Lourosa record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Farense record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Farense | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Farense | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.3%, draw 29.5%, away 33.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.12 | 2.77 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.77 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.12 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | 3.17 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 2.90 | 2.75 |