Farense
vs
Penafiel
Garuda Lions Prediction: Farense
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Farense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Farense vs Penafiel overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Farense vs Penafiel
| Probability | Farense | Draw | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.6% | 26.5% | 18.9% |
| Market | 47.3% | 28.1% | 24.6% |
| Final | 49.1% | 27.7% | 23.2% |
| Edge | +1.8% | -0.4% | -1.4% |
Why Farense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.90.
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 49.1% × 2.01 − 1).
Farense vs Penafiel match preview
Farense enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five games, alongside one draw. Their expected goals for this matchup stand at 1.67, indicating a solid offensive performance. In contrast, Penafiel has shown resilience, winning three of their last six matches, but they come into this game with an expected goals figure of only 0.90, suggesting potential struggles in attack.
The probabilities suggest a favorable outlook for Farense, with a 50% chance of winning compared to Penafiel's 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Farense, which aligns with the expectation that both teams may find scoring challenging, as reflected in the 49% probability of both teams scoring. The head-to-head record shows no wins for either team in their last two encounters, with two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Farense and Penafiel expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Farense and Penafiel attack and defence ratings
Farense
Penafiel
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Farense vs Penafiel markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 49.1% | 2.04 | +1.8% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 49.1% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Penafiel | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 2-0 | 10.7% |
Farense vs Penafiel stats
Farense and Penafiel recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Farense and Penafiel season so far
Farense record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penafiel record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Farense vs Penafiel head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Penafiel | Farense | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Farense | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Farense vs Penafiel odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 28.1%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.28 | 3.82 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.28 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.39 | 3.79 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 2.95 | 3.28 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .