Chaves
vs
Vizela
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chaves
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Chaves is the favourite, not a value bet.
Chaves vs Vizela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chaves vs Vizela
| Probability | Chaves | Draw | Vizela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.3% | 30.6% | 32.0% |
| Market | 36.5% | 28.7% | 34.8% |
| Final | 36.7% | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +0.5% | -0.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (our 36.7% × 2.65 − 1).
Chaves vs Vizela match preview
Chaves and Vizela are set to face off in the Segunda Liga, with Chaves holding a slight edge in the probabilities at 36% compared to Vizela's 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Chaves, with an expected goals tally of 1.25 for Chaves and 1.23 for Vizela. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Chaves recording two wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Vizela has achieved two wins and a draw in their last six outings.
In their last two encounters, Chaves and Vizela have each secured one victory, indicating a competitive rivalry. Our model suggests a 52% chance that both teams will score, while there is a 45% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chaves and Vizela expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Chaves and Vizela attack and defence ratings
Chaves
Vizela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chaves vs Vizela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chaves | 36.7% | 2.72 | +0.2% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chaves | 36.7% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Vizela | 34.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chaves win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 62.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% | |
| 1-0 | 10.5% |
Chaves vs Vizela stats
Chaves and Vizela recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chaves and Vizela season so far
Chaves record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
Vizela record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chaves vs Vizela head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Vizela | Chaves | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vizela | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Chaves | Vizela | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Chaves | Vizela | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-08 | Vizela | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-15 | Vizela | Chaves | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-01 | Chaves | Vizela | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-10 | Vizela | Chaves | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-22 | Vizela | Chaves | Taça da Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chaves vs Vizela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.5%, draw 28.7%, away 34.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.53 | 3.18 | 2.66 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 3.18 | 2.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.21 | 2.71 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 2.95 | 2.48 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .