Academica
vs
Leixoes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leixoes
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leixoes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Academica vs Leixoes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Academica vs Leixoes
| Probability | Academica | Draw | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.2% | 25.9% | 41.9% |
| Market | 32.5% | 28.2% | 39.3% |
| Final | 32.4% | 27.6% | 39.9% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.6% | +0.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.43 − 1).
Academica vs Leixoes match preview
Academica faces Leixoes in the Segunda Liga with a probability of 32% for a home win, while Leixoes has a 39% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams have shown fluctuating form recently, with Academica recording two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Leixoes has managed two wins, one draw, and three losses.
The expected goals for Academica is 1.30, compared to Leixoes' 1.58, indicating a slight edge for the visitors in offensive potential. Additionally, there is a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 59% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, suggesting moderate certainty in the forecasted outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Academica and Leixoes expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.10
Academica and Leixoes attack and defence ratings
Academica
Leixoes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Academica vs Leixoes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leixoes | 39.9% | 2.50 | +0.7% | 2.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 32.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Leixoes | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leixoes win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Academica vs Leixoes stats
Academica and Leixoes recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Academica and Leixoes season so far
Academica record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Leixoes record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Academica vs Leixoes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-30 | Academica | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-08-22 | Leixoes | Academica | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2021-05-22 | Leixoes | Academica | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2021-01-26 | Academica | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2020-01-26 | Leixoes | Academica | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2019-08-11 | Academica | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 3-2 |
| 2019-04-27 | Leixoes | Academica | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2018-12-30 | Academica | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2018-03-14 | Academica | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2017-10-21 | Leixoes | Academica | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Academica vs Leixoes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 28.2%, away 39.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.86 | 3.24 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.30 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.41 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.24 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 3.28 | 2.43 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 2.98 | 2.17 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .