Academica
vs
Amarante
3 – 2 Full time
| 11′ | B. Silva | ||
| 25′ | G. Cunha | ||
| 43′ | Academica | ||
| 53′ | S. Simao | ||
| 55′ | Amarante | ||
| 57′ | A. Rodrigues | ||
| 66′ | H. Nunes | ||
| 71′ | Academica | ||
| 78′ | Academica | ||
| 89′ | Amarante |
Academica vs Amarante overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Academica vs Amarante
| Probability | Academica | Draw | Amarante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.9% | 28.5% | 27.6% |
| Market | 47.4% | 27.1% | 25.5% |
| Final | 46.5% | 27.4% | 26.1% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +0.4% | +0.5% |
Why Academica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Academica and Amarante expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Academica and Amarante attack and defence ratings
Academica
Amarante
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Academica vs Amarante: result vs prediction
Academica 3 – 2 Amarante
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Academica vs Amarante markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 46.5% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Amarante | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Academica win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Academica vs Amarante stats
Academica vs Amarante head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Academica | Amarante | Liga 3 | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Amarante | Academica | Liga 3 | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Amarante | Academica | Taça de Portugal | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Academica vs Amarante odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 27.1%, away 25.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.38 | 3.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.38 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.28 | 3.56 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .