Academica
vs
Amarante
Garuda Lions Prediction: Academica
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Academica vs Amarante overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Academica vs Amarante
| Probability | Academica | Draw | Amarante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.9% | 28.8% | 34.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.9% | 28.8% | 34.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Academica
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Academica vs Amarante match preview
Academica faces Amarante in the Taça de Portugal with a kickoff scheduled for October 17, 2026. According to our model, Academica has a 37% chance of winning, while Amarante stands at 34%, and a draw is estimated at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Academica, with a probability of 9%. The expected goals for Academica are 1.33, compared to Amarante's 1.28, indicating a closely contested match.
In terms of recent form, Academica has recorded a mixed performance with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Amarante has seen one win, two draws, and three losses in the same timeframe. Our model suggests a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Academica and Amarante expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Academica and Amarante attack and defence ratings
Academica
Amarante
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Academica vs Amarante markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 36.9% | 2.71 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 36.9% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Amarante | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Academica win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 63.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-0 | 8.6% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |