União de Leiria
vs
Academica
Garuda Lions Prediction: União de Leiria
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
União de Leiria vs Academica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: União de Leiria vs Academica
| Probability | União de Leiria | Draw | Academica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 24.0% | 25.1% |
| Market | 48.6% | 27.0% | 24.3% |
| Final | 49.2% | 26.3% | 24.5% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -3.0% | +0.7% |
Why União de Leiria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices União de Leiria below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
União de Leiria vs Academica match preview
The upcoming match between União de Leiria and Academica in the Segunda Liga presents an intriguing matchup. União de Leiria holds a 49% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 26% and Academica at 24%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of União de Leiria, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for União de Leiria stand at 1.94, compared to Academica's 1.32.
In terms of recent form, União de Leiria has recorded a sequence of results with four wins, one draw, and one loss, while Academica has alternated between wins and losses, with two wins and four losses in their last six matches. The probabilities suggest a strong chance for over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 64%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
União de Leiria and Academica expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
União de Leiria and Academica attack and defence ratings
União de Leiria
Academica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
União de Leiria vs Academica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 49.2% | 2.03 | +2.2% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 49.2% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Academica | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% |
| No | 36.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | União de Leiria win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
União de Leiria vs Academica stats
União de Leiria and Academica recent form
| União de Leiria |
WDWWWL |
| Academica |
WLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
União de Leiria and Academica season so far
União de Leiria record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Academica record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
União de Leiria vs Academica head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
União de Leiria vs Academica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.6%, draw 27.0%, away 24.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.40 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.45 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.40 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.35 | 4.00 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.07 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .