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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

União de Leiria vs Bragança

2 – 1 Full time

22′Bragança
24′União de Leiria
25′P. Marques
48′P. Fernandez
61′União de Leiria
64′D. Martins
87′União de Leiria
União de Leiria 63%
Draw 17%
Bragança 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

União de Leiria vs Bragança overview

Garuda Lions analysis: União de Leiria vs Bragança

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUnião de LeiriaDrawBragança
Model18.3%22.6%59.0%
Market77.4%15.5%7.1%
Final62.6%17.3%20.1%
Edge-14.8%+1.8%+13.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why União de Leiria

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

União de Leiri ↓ / Bragança → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 6% 5% 1 10% 10% 7% 6% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

União de Leiria and Bragança expected goals

União de Leiria 1.09
Bragança 2.08

Total expected goals: 3.17

União de Leiria and Bragança attack and defence ratings

União de Leiria

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Bragança

Attack 1.63 +63%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

União de Leiria vs Bragança: result vs prediction

União de Leiria 2 – 1 Bragança

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

União de Leiria vs Bragança markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 União de Leiria 62.6% 1.60 -14.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.3% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.1% 1.69 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 82.7% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 81.7% 1.22 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2União de Leiria62.6%
Draw17.3%
Bragança20.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%
Both teams to scoreYes59.1%
No40.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.9%
12 (either side)82.7%
X2 (draw or away)37.4%
Handicap -1União de Leiria win7.1%
Push (exactly one goal)11.2%
Loss81.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.5%
1-29.9%
0-29.1%

União de Leiria vs Bragança stats

União de Leiria and Bragança recent form

newest first
União de Leiria LWDWWW
Bragança WWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

União de Leiria vs Bragança head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

União de Leiria vs Bragança odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 77.4%, draw 15.5%, away 7.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.20 5.90 12.90
Bet365 1.17 7.00 9.00
BetVictor 1.15 6.00 15.00
Marathonbet 1.19 5.90 13.00
Pinnacle 1.18 5.49 9.84
William Hill 1.20 5.00 13.00

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.