União de Leiria
vs
Bragança
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bragança
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
União de Leiria vs Bragança overview
Garuda Lions analysis: União de Leiria vs Bragança
| Probability | União de Leiria | Draw | Bragança |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.9% | 24.2% | 52.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.9% | 24.2% | 52.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bragança
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.21.
União de Leiria vs Bragança match preview
In the upcoming Taça de Portugal match, União de Leiria faces Bragança, with the model assigning a 23% probability of a União de Leiria victory, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 53% likelihood that Bragança will win. The expected goals for União de Leiria stand at 1.21, while Bragança is projected to score 1.92. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with a 10% probability.
Both teams show a strong inclination towards scoring, with the model indicating a 61% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood that both teams will find the net. Recent form suggests União de Leiria has been inconsistent with a record of W-D-W-W-W-L, while Bragança has shown more stability with a W-W-L-W sequence.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
União de Leiria and Bragança expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
União de Leiria and Bragança attack and defence ratings
União de Leiria
Bragança
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
União de Leiria vs Bragança markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bragança | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 22.9% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Bragança | 52.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% |
| No | 39.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bragança win | 31.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 8.0% |
União de Leiria vs Bragança stats
União de Leiria and Bragança recent form
| União de Leiria |
WDWWWL |
| Bragança |
WWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.