Recreativa de Lamelas
vs
Vitória SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Recreativa de Lamelas
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC
| Probability | Recreativa de Lamelas | Draw | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.7% | 24.9% | 17.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.7% | 24.9% | 17.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Recreativa de Lamelas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.90.
Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC match preview
Recreativa de Lamelas enters the match against Vitória SC with a strong probability of winning at 58%, while a draw stands at 25% and Vitória SC at 17%. The expected goals for Recreativa de Lamelas is 1.81 compared to Vitória SC's 0.90, suggesting a significant advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 11%.
In terms of recent form, Recreativa de Lamelas has won their latest match, while Vitória SC has had a mixed performance with one draw and four losses in their last six games. Both teams are projected to score, with a 51% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Recreativa de Lamelas and Vitória SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Recreativa de Lamelas and Vitória SC attack and defence ratings
Recreativa de Lamelas
Vitória SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Recreativa de Lamelas | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Recreativa de Lamelas | 57.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Vitória SC | 17.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% |
| No | 49.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Recreativa de Lamelas win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 2-0 | 10.9% |
Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC stats
Recreativa de Lamelas and Vitória SC recent form
| Recreativa de Lamelas |
W |
| Vitória SC |
DLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.