Vitória SC
vs
Maritimo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vitória SC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Vitória SC vs Maritimo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitória SC vs Maritimo
| Probability | Vitória SC | Draw | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.8% | 32.5% | 32.7% |
| Market | 61.2% | 23.2% | 15.6% |
| Final | 54.6% | 25.5% | 19.8% |
| Edge | -26.4% | +9.3% | +17.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Vitória SC vs Maritimo match preview
Vitória SC faces Maritimo in the Primeira Liga with a probability of 56% for a home win, while a draw stands at 26% and Maritimo at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. The expected goals for Vitória SC are 1.18, compared to Maritimo's 1.02, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Vitória SC has recorded one win and four losses in their last five matches, while Maritimo has not won in their last five, with four losses and one draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 38%, and both teams to score is at 46%, indicating a potential for a low-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitória SC and Maritimo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Vitória SC and Maritimo attack and defence ratings
Vitória SC
Maritimo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitória SC vs Maritimo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitória SC | 54.6% | 1.83 | -26.4% | 1.58 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitória SC | 54.6% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Maritimo | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitória SC win | 14.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 65.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-0 | 11.6% |
Vitória SC vs Maritimo stats
Vitória SC and Maritimo recent form
| Vitória SC |
WLDLDL |
| Maritimo |
WLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitória SC and Maritimo season so far
Vitória SC record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Maritimo record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Vitória SC vs Maritimo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Vitória SC vs Maritimo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.2%, draw 23.2%, away 15.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.22 | 6.26 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.00 | 6.30 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.51 | 4.05 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.22 | 6.18 |
| SBO | 1.49 | 3.58 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .