Estoril
vs
Moreirense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estoril
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Estoril vs Moreirense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estoril vs Moreirense
| Probability | Estoril | Draw | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.3% | 33.9% | 31.8% |
| Market | 51.9% | 25.3% | 22.8% |
| Final | 47.5% | 27.4% | 25.0% |
| Edge | -17.6% | +8.6% | +9.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Estoril vs Moreirense match preview
Estoril and Moreirense are set to clash in the Primeira Liga, with Estoril holding a 45% probability of winning compared to Moreirense's 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Estoril, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Both teams have struggled recently, with Estoril recording five losses and one draw in their last six matches, while Moreirense has two losses, one draw, one win, and two losses in their recent outings.
In terms of expected goals, Estoril is forecasted to score 0.99, while Moreirense is slightly ahead with 1.01. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 32%, and there is a 41% chance that both teams will score. Historically, in their last two encounters, Estoril has not secured a win, with one draw and one victory for Moreirense.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estoril and Moreirense expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Estoril and Moreirense attack and defence ratings
Estoril
Moreirense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estoril vs Moreirense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estoril | 47.5% | 2.10 | -17.6% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estoril | 47.5% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Moreirense | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.4% |
| No | 59.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estoril win | 13.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 65.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.4% |
| 1-1 | 14.9% | |
| 1-0 | 12.8% |
Estoril vs Moreirense stats
Estoril and Moreirense recent form
| Estoril |
DLLLDL |
| Moreirense |
LLDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estoril and Moreirense season so far
Estoril record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Moreirense record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Estoril vs Moreirense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Moreirense | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Estoril | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estoril vs Moreirense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 25.3%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 3.89 | 4.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.77 | 3.74 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.82 | 4.12 |
| SBO | 1.80 | 3.26 | 3.52 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .