Estrela
vs
Casa Pia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estrela
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Estrela vs Casa Pia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estrela vs Casa Pia
| Probability | Estrela | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.0% | 27.1% | 18.8% |
| Market | 55.0% | 25.5% | 19.5% |
| Final | 54.8% | 25.9% | 19.3% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +1.6% | -0.7% |
Why Estrela
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.86.
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Estrela vs Casa Pia match preview
Estrela hosts Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga with a favorable outlook based on recent performances and statistical projections. Estrela has recorded two wins in their last five matches, while Casa Pia has struggled, losing four of their last six games. According to our model, Estrela has a 55% probability of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. The expected goals for Estrela stand at 1.67, compared to Casa Pia's 0.85.
Historically, Estrela has had the upper hand in their recent encounters, winning both of their last two matches against Casa Pia. The probability of a draw is 26%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 48%. With Estrela's current form and head-to-head record, they appear to be in a strong position for this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estrela and Casa Pia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Estrela and Casa Pia attack and defence ratings
Estrela
Casa Pia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estrela vs Casa Pia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 54.8% | 1.83 | -0.9% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.0% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 54.8% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Casa Pia | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.6% |
| No | 52.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrela win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 46.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.9% |
Estrela vs Casa Pia stats
Estrela and Casa Pia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estrela and Casa Pia season so far
Estrela record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
Casa Pia record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estrela vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Estrela | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Casa Pia | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 3-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estrela vs Casa Pia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 25.5%, away 19.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.77 | 5.05 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.62 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.75 | 5.04 |
| SBO | 1.67 | 3.28 | 4.10 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .