Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 64
Alpendorada
vs
Casa Pia
0 – 1 Full time
| 62′ | Casa Pia | ||
| 69′ | Casa Pia | ||
| 72′ | Casa Pia | ||
| 79′ | Alpendorada |
Alpendorada
74%
Draw
18%
Casa Pia
9%
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alpendorada vs Casa Pia
| Probability | Alpendorada | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.6% | 17.9% | 8.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 73.6% | 17.9% | 8.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alpendorada
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
82%
3+ goals
59%
No goals
5%
Alpendorada and Casa Pia expected goals
Alpendorada
2.36
Casa Pia
0.70
Total expected goals: 3.06
Alpendorada and Casa Pia attack and defence ratings
Alpendorada
Attack
1.39 +39%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Casa Pia
Attack
0.51 -49%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia: result vs prediction
Alpendorada 0 – 1 Casa Pia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alpendorada | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Alpendorada win | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alpendorada | 73.6% |
| Draw | 17.9% | |
| Casa Pia | 8.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alpendorada win | 51.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 26.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 3-0 | 10.2% |
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia stats
Alpendorada and Casa Pia recent form
| Alpendorada |
WDLWW |
| Casa Pia |
LWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
0Alpendorada wins
0Draws
1Casa Pia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Alpendorada | Casa Pia | Taça de Portugal | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.