Alpendorada
vs
Casa Pia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alpendorada
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alpendorada vs Casa Pia
| Probability | Alpendorada | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.9% | 18.0% | 9.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 72.9% | 18.0% | 9.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alpendorada
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia match preview
Alpendorada faces Casa Pia in the Taça de Portugal with a strong probability favoring the home side at 73%. The expected goals for Alpendorada stand at 2.38, while Casa Pia is projected to score only 0.74. Recent form shows Alpendorada performing well with a record of W-D-L-W-W, contrasting with Casa Pia's struggles, having lost their last three matches and only managing one win in their last six games.
The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-0 in favor of Alpendorada, with a 12% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams to score has a probability of 48%. Historically, in their last encounter, Casa Pia secured a win, which adds an interesting dynamic to this upcoming fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alpendorada and Casa Pia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Alpendorada and Casa Pia attack and defence ratings
Alpendorada
Casa Pia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alpendorada | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.9% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Alpendorada win | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alpendorada | 72.9% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Casa Pia | 9.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.4% |
| No | 51.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alpendorada win | 50.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 27.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 3-0 | 9.9% | |
| 1-0 | 9.7% |
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia stats
Alpendorada and Casa Pia recent form
| Alpendorada |
WDLWW |
| Casa Pia |
WLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.
Alpendorada vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Alpendorada | Casa Pia | Taça de Portugal | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.