Chaves
vs
Os Marialvas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Os Marialvas
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Chaves vs Os Marialvas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chaves vs Os Marialvas
| Probability | Chaves | Draw | Os Marialvas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.3% | 24.9% | 58.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 16.3% | 24.9% | 58.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Os Marialvas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 2 for the opposition.
Chaves vs Os Marialvas match preview
Chaves faces Os Marialvas in the Taça de Portugal with kickoff scheduled for October 16, 2026. The model indicates a 21% chance of a Chaves victory, while Os Marialvas has a 51% probability of winning, and a draw stands at 28%. The expected goals for Chaves is 0.93, whereas Os Marialvas is projected to score 1.58. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Chaves has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Os Marialvas has been in better shape, winning four of their last five games and drawing one. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 46%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 49%. The confidence grade for these probabilities is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chaves and Os Marialvas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Chaves and Os Marialvas attack and defence ratings
Chaves
Os Marialvas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chaves vs Os Marialvas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Os Marialvas | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chaves | 16.3% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Os Marialvas | 58.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Os Marialvas win | 34.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | |
| 0-2 | 11.4% |
Chaves vs Os Marialvas stats
Chaves and Os Marialvas recent form
| Chaves |
LWWLDL |
| Os Marialvas |
WWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.