Chaves
vs
Os Marialvas
2 – 1 Full time
| 8′ | Os Marialvas | ||
| 12′ | Os Marialvas | ||
| 14′ | Roberto | ||
| 25′ | Chaves | ||
| 25′ | Os Marialvas | ||
| 51′ | Chaves | ||
| 53′ | Y. Sonhi | ||
| 70′ | G. Garcia | ||
| 77′ | Chaves | ||
| 90′ | Chaves |
Chaves vs Os Marialvas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chaves vs Os Marialvas
| Probability | Chaves | Draw | Os Marialvas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.2% | 26.0% | 56.8% |
| Market | 70.0% | 20.9% | 9.1% |
| Final | 56.8% | 22.2% | 21.0% |
| Edge | -13.2% | +1.3% | +11.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chaves and Os Marialvas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Chaves and Os Marialvas attack and defence ratings
Chaves
Os Marialvas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Chaves vs Os Marialvas: result vs prediction
Chaves 2 – 1 Os Marialvas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chaves vs Os Marialvas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chaves | 56.8% | 1.76 | -13.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chaves | 56.8% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Os Marialvas | 21.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.9% |
| No | 52.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chaves win | 5.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.5% | |
| Loss | 82.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% | |
| 0-2 | 11.3% |
Chaves vs Os Marialvas stats
Chaves and Os Marialvas recent form
| Chaves |
DLWWLD |
| Os Marialvas |
WWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chaves vs Os Marialvas head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Chaves vs Os Marialvas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.7%, draw 20.6%, away 9.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 4.40 | 10.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 4.33 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 4.60 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.30 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.31 | 5.60 | 9.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.31 | 4.40 | 10.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 4.20 | 8.11 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.00 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .