Lusitânia Lourosa
vs
Chaves
1 – 1 Full time
| 7′ | Ricardinho | ||
| 12′ | Tiago Simões | ||
| 30′ | João Santos | ||
| 44′ | Andre Rodrigues | ||
| 45′ | João Valido | ||
| 60′ | Saliou MandiangMicael correia | ||
| 60′ | Arsénio NunesMiguel Teixeira | ||
| 60′ | Tomás Morais CostaMarcos André Paulino Maia | ||
| 69′ | Néstor AraujoMamadou Tounkara | ||
| 69′ | Wilson TavaresGabriel Souza da Silva | ||
| 69′ | Andre RodriguesPedro Pelágio | ||
| 78′ | Arsénio Nunes | ||
| 79′ | João SantosJoão Silva | ||
| 80′ | RicardinhoIuri Moreira | ||
| 80′ | Robyn EsajasKiko Pereira | ||
| 86′ | Paulo Miguel·Gomes FerreiraDaniel Paulo dos Santos | ||
| 88′ | Kiko Pereira | ||
| 90′ | Micael correia |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 0 | Offsides | 0 |
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
| Probability | Lusitânia Lourosa | Draw | Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.4% | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| Market | 41.1% | 29.5% | 29.4% |
| Final | 47.6% | 26.8% | 25.5% |
| Edge | +6.6% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
Why Lusitânia Lourosa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lusitânia Lourosa below our published probability: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves attack and defence ratings
Lusitânia Lourosa
Chaves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves: result vs prediction
Lusitânia Lourosa 1 – 1 Chaves
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 47.6% | 2.10 | +6.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 47.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Chaves | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win | 46.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 32.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | |
| 1-1 | 8.2% |
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves stats
Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves recent form
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
WWWWDW |
| Chaves |
LWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves going into this match
Lusitânia Lourosa record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Chaves record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Chaves | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-20 | Chaves | Lusitânia Lourosa | Taça de Portugal | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 29.6%, away 29.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.33 | 2.99 | 3.17 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 2.99 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.18 | 3.38 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 2.98 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.88 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .