Lusitânia Lourosa
vs
Chaves
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lusitânia Lourosa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
| Probability | Lusitânia Lourosa | Draw | Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.7% | 18.6% | 13.7% |
| Market | 40.2% | 30.2% | 29.6% |
| Final | 47.1% | 27.3% | 25.7% |
| Edge | +27.6% | -11.7% | -15.9% |
Why Lusitânia Lourosa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lusitânia Lourosa below the model: +27.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves match preview
Lusitânia Lourosa enters this match against Chaves with a strong recent form, having won four of their last six games, alongside a draw. Their expected goals for this fixture stand at 2.52, indicating a potent attacking threat. In contrast, Chaves has struggled recently, recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches, with an expected goals figure of just 1.09.
The model gives Lusitânia Lourosa a 68% chance of winning, while a draw is assessed at 19% and Chaves at 14%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Lusitânia Lourosa, with a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score. Historically, the last two encounters between these teams resulted in two draws, with neither side securing a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves attack and defence ratings
Lusitânia Lourosa
Chaves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 47.1% | 2.13 | +27.6% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 47.1% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Chaves | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win | 46.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 32.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | |
| 1-1 | 8.2% |
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves stats
Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves recent form
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
WWWWDW |
| Chaves |
LWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Chaves season so far
Lusitânia Lourosa record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Chaves record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Chaves | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 30.2%, away 29.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.33 | 2.99 | 3.17 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.10 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 2.99 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.07 | 3.21 |
| SBO | 2.10 | 2.92 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.88 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .