Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 128
Madalena
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
1 – 3 Full time
Madalena
42%
Draw
25%
Lusitânia Lourosa
33%
Madalena vs Lusitânia Lourosa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Madalena vs Lusitânia Lourosa
| Probability | Madalena | Draw | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.3% | 25.2% | 32.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.3% | 25.2% | 32.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Madalena and Lusitânia Lourosa expected goals
Madalena
1.72
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.51
Total expected goals: 3.23
Madalena and Lusitânia Lourosa attack and defence ratings
Madalena
Attack
1.36 +36%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
0.75 -25%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Madalena vs Lusitânia Lourosa: result vs prediction
Madalena 1 – 3 Lusitânia Lourosa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Madalena vs Lusitânia Lourosa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Madalena | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Madalena | 42.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Madalena win | 22.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Madalena vs Lusitânia Lourosa stats
Madalena and Lusitânia Lourosa recent form
| Madalena |
W |
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.