Lusitânia Lourosa
vs
Os Limianos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lusitânia Lourosa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos
| Probability | Lusitânia Lourosa | Draw | Os Limianos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 25.7% | 26.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.7% | 25.7% | 26.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lusitânia Lourosa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos match preview
Lusitânia Lourosa enters the match against Os Limianos with a strong recent form, recording four wins and a draw in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 1.74, indicating a solid attacking performance, while they have a 60% probability of both teams scoring. The model assigns a 48% chance of a Lusitânia Lourosa victory, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability.
Os Limianos has shown mixed results recently, with two wins and one loss in their last three matches. They have an expected goals figure of 1.26, suggesting they may struggle to match Lusitânia Lourosa's offensive output. The model gives Os Limianos a 27% chance of winning, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup in the Taça de Portugal.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Os Limianos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Lusitânia Lourosa and Os Limianos attack and defence ratings
Lusitânia Lourosa
Os Limianos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 47.7% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 47.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Os Limianos | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% |
| No | 39.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos stats
Lusitânia Lourosa and Os Limianos recent form
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
WWWWDW |
| Os Limianos |
WWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.