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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos

2 – 1 Full time

16′Os Limianos
25′Os Limianos
34′Guilherme
40′Lusitânia Lourosa
53′J. Silva
84′M. Silva
90′Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa 70%
Draw 19%
Os Limianos 10%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLusitânia LourosaDrawOs Limianos
Model48.0%26.0%26.0%
Market77.7%17.0%5.3%
Final70.3%19.2%10.5%
Edge-7.4%+2.3%+5.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Lusitânia Lourosa

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.22.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lusitânia Lour ↓ / Os Limianos → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 12% 7% 2 8% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Lusitânia Lourosa and Os Limianos expected goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1.72
Os Limianos 1.22

Total expected goals: 2.94

Lusitânia Lourosa and Os Limianos attack and defence ratings

Lusitânia Lourosa

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Os Limianos

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos: result vs prediction

Lusitânia Lourosa 2 – 1 Os Limianos

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lusitânia Lourosa 70.3% 1.42 -7.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.2% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.9% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.5% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.0% 1.92 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lusitânia Lourosa70.3%
Draw19.2%
Os Limianos10.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%
Both teams to scoreYes58.9%
No41.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.5%
12 (either side)80.8%
X2 (draw or away)29.7%
Handicap -1Lusitânia Lourosa win26.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss52.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
2-19.5%
1-08.0%

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos stats

Lusitânia Lourosa and Os Limianos recent form

newest first
Lusitânia Lourosa DWWWWD
Os Limianos WWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Os Limianos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 77.7%, draw 17.0%, away 5.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.19 5.40 17.50
Bet365 1.14 5.75 19.00
BetVictor 1.17 5.75 15.00
Marathonbet 1.18 5.40 18.00
Pinnacle 1.18 4.84 10.13
William Hill 1.18 5.00 17.00

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.