Felgueiras 1932
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Felgueiras 1932
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Felgueiras 1932 is the favourite, not a value bet.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa
| Probability | Felgueiras 1932 | Draw | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.6% | 32.7% | 36.6% |
| Market | 37.2% | 31.4% | 31.3% |
| Final | 35.6% | 31.7% | 32.7% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +0.3% | +1.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (our 35.6% × 2.50 − 1).
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa match preview
Felgueiras 1932 will face Lusitânia Lourosa in a Segunda Liga match on October 25, 2026. The probabilities suggest a close contest, with Felgueiras 1932 at 35%, Lusitânia Lourosa at 33%, and a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Felgueiras 1932, occurring with an 11% probability. Expected goals are slightly in favor of Lusitânia Lourosa at 1.10 compared to Felgueiras 1932's 0.98.
In terms of recent form, Felgueiras 1932 has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Lusitânia Lourosa is in strong form, having won five consecutive games and drawn one. The head-to-head record from their last two encounters shows each team with one victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.08
Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa attack and defence ratings
Felgueiras 1932
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Felgueiras 1932 | 35.6% | 2.81 | -1.7% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Felgueiras 1932 | 35.6% |
| Draw | 31.7% | |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 32.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.1% |
| No | 56.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Felgueiras 1932 win | 11.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 69.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.8% | |
| 0-1 | 12.4% |
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa stats
Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa recent form
| Felgueiras 1932 |
WLWLLW |
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Felgueiras 1932 and Lusitânia Lourosa season so far
Felgueiras 1932 record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
Lusitânia Lourosa record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Felgueiras 1932 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.2%, draw 31.4%, away 31.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.49 | 2.88 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.05 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.15 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 2.88 | 2.99 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 2.96 | 3.09 |
| SBO | 2.39 | 2.77 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .