AVS
vs
Tondela
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tondela
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tondela is the favourite, not a value bet.
AVS vs Tondela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AVS vs Tondela
| Probability | AVS | Draw | Tondela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.1% | 32.7% | 34.2% |
| Market | 26.8% | 28.2% | 45.0% |
| Final | 28.3% | 29.4% | 42.3% |
| Edge | +1.6% | +1.1% | -2.7% |
Why Tondela
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (our 42.3% × 2.12 − 1).
AVS vs Tondela match preview
AVS faces Tondela in the Segunda Liga on October 25, 2026, with both teams showing varied recent form. AVS has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last six matches, while Tondela has an impressive streak of four wins followed by one loss. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Tondela favored at 39%, followed by a draw at 31%, and AVS at 30%.
The expected goals for the match are closely matched, with AVS at 1.03 and Tondela at 1.06. Our model suggests a most likely scoreline of 0-1 in favor of Tondela, occurring with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AVS and Tondela expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
AVS and Tondela attack and defence ratings
AVS
Tondela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
AVS vs Tondela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 42.3% | 2.36 | -2.7% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.7% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AVS | 28.3% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Tondela | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.4% |
| No | 56.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win | 13.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 65.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 13.7% | |
| 0-1 | 11.7% |
AVS vs Tondela stats
AVS and Tondela recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AVS and Tondela season so far
AVS record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tondela record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AVS vs Tondela head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Tondela | AVS | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | AVS | Tondela | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AVS vs Tondela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.8%, draw 28.2%, away 45.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.48 | 3.28 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.03 |
| Pinnacle | 3.55 | 3.46 | 2.03 |
| SBO | 3.07 | 2.98 | 1.97 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .