Torreense
vs
Amarante
Garuda Lions Prediction: Torreense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Torreense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Torreense vs Amarante overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Torreense vs Amarante
| Probability | Torreense | Draw | Amarante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.9% | 27.0% | 40.1% |
| Market | 51.9% | 27.0% | 21.1% |
| Final | 47.1% | 27.0% | 25.8% |
| Edge | -4.7% | -0.0% | +4.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.8% per unit staked (our 47.1% × 1.85 − 1).
Torreense vs Amarante match preview
Torreense enters the match against Amarante with a probability of 49% to win, while Amarante has a 24% chance of victory. The expected goals for Torreense are 1.44, slightly higher than Amarante's 1.29. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Torreense, with a 9% likelihood.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Torreense recording two losses, one win, one draw, and another loss in their last five matches. Amarante has a similar pattern, featuring two losses, one win, one draw, and one win in their recent games. The model indicates a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Torreense and Amarante expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Torreense and Amarante attack and defence ratings
Torreense
Amarante
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Torreense vs Amarante markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torreense | 47.1% | 2.12 | -4.7% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torreense | 47.1% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Amarante | 25.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Torreense win | 15.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 67.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Torreense vs Amarante stats
Torreense and Amarante recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Torreense and Amarante season so far
Torreense record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Amarante record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Torreense vs Amarante head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Torreense vs Amarante odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 27.0%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.38 | 4.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.38 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.50 | 4.54 |
| SBO | 1.74 | 3.06 | 3.76 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .