Feirense
vs
Benfica B
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benfica B
0 – 1 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.62.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Feirense vs Benfica B overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Feirense vs Benfica B
| Probability | Feirense | Draw | Benfica B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.7% | 33.9% | 47.4% |
| Market | 35.6% | 28.8% | 35.6% |
| Final | 31.4% | 30.1% | 38.5% |
| Edge | -4.2% | +1.3% | +3.0% |
Why Benfica B
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Benfica B below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.0% per unit staked (our 38.5% × 2.70 − 1).
Feirense vs Benfica B match preview
Feirense faces Benfica B in the Segunda Liga on October 24, 2026. Feirense is struggling with a recent form of six consecutive losses, while Benfica B has shown more resilience, recording two wins, one loss, one draw, and two wins in their last six matches. According to our model, Feirense has a 32% chance of winning, while Benfica B stands at 38%, with a 30% probability for a draw.
The expected goals for this match indicate a challenging day for Feirense, projected at 0.62, compared to Benfica B's 1.15. Our model suggests the most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 18% probability. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 26%, and both teams scoring is projected at 33%. In their last two encounters, Benfica B has won both matches against Feirense.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Feirense and Benfica B expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.78
Feirense and Benfica B attack and defence ratings
Feirense
Benfica B
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Feirense vs Benfica B markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica B | 38.5% | 2.60 | +3.0% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feirense | 31.4% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Benfica B | 38.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.0% |
| No | 67.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica B win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 52.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 18.3% |
| 0-0 | 18.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Feirense vs Benfica B stats
Feirense and Benfica B recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Feirense and Benfica B season so far
Feirense record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Benfica B record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Feirense vs Benfica B head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Benfica B | Feirense | Segunda Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Feirense | Benfica B | Segunda Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-07-26 | Feirense | Benfica B | Friendlies Clubs | 5-2 |
| 2025-02-07 | Benfica B | Feirense | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Feirense | Benfica B | Segunda Liga | 2-3 |
| 2024-03-02 | Feirense | Benfica B | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | Benfica B | Feirense | Segunda Liga | 2-3 |
| 2023-05-13 | Feirense | Benfica B | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2023-01-08 | Benfica B | Feirense | Segunda Liga | 3-6 |
| 2022-05-07 | Benfica B | Feirense | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Feirense vs Benfica B odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 28.8%, away 35.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.18 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.18 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.30 | 2.66 |
| SBO | 2.40 | 2.91 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .