Benfica B
vs
Chaves
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benfica B
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Benfica B is the favourite, not a value bet.
Benfica B vs Chaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benfica B vs Chaves
| Probability | Benfica B | Draw | Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| Market | 39.6% | 27.2% | 33.2% |
| Final | 39.9% | 27.8% | 32.3% |
| Edge | +0.4% | +0.6% | -0.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.39 − 1).
Benfica B vs Chaves match preview
Benfica B faces Chaves in the Segunda Liga on October 31, 2026. According to our model, Benfica B has a 41% chance of winning, while both a draw and a Chaves victory are each at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Benfica B, with a 10% probability. Expected goals indicate Benfica B at 1.35 and Chaves at 1.11, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Benfica B has recorded a draw, two wins, two losses, and another draw in their last six matches. Chaves, on the other hand, has been in better form, with four wins, a draw, and a loss in their last six games. The head-to-head record shows Benfica B with one win and one draw against Chaves in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benfica B and Chaves expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Benfica B and Chaves attack and defence ratings
Benfica B
Chaves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benfica B vs Chaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica B | 39.9% | 2.50 | +0.4% | 2.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica B | 39.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Chaves | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica B win | 19.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
Benfica B vs Chaves stats
Benfica B and Chaves recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Benfica B and Chaves season so far
Benfica B record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chaves record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
Benfica B vs Chaves head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Benfica B | Chaves | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Chaves | Benfica B | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Benfica B vs Chaves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.6%, draw 27.2%, away 33.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.40 | 2.79 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.40 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.39 | 3.42 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .