Vizela
vs
Academica
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vizela
1 – 0 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vizela is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vizela vs Academica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vizela vs Academica
| Probability | Vizela | Draw | Academica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.9% | 27.1% | 52.0% |
| Market | 42.4% | 29.1% | 28.5% |
| Final | 37.0% | 28.6% | 34.4% |
| Edge | -5.4% | -0.5% | +5.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.9% per unit staked (our 37.0% × 2.22 − 1).
Vizela vs Academica match preview
Vizela faces Academica in the Segunda Liga, with the probabilities indicating a 37% chance for a Vizela win, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 34% chance for an Academica victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Vizela, occurring with a 6% probability. The expected goals for Vizela stand at 0.95, while Academica is projected at 1.63.
In terms of recent form, Vizela has recorded a sequence of results with three losses, one win, and one draw in their last five matches. Conversely, Academica has shown stronger performance with three wins followed by two losses. The model suggests a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vizela and Academica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Vizela and Academica attack and defence ratings
Vizela
Academica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vizela vs Academica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vizela | 37.0% | 2.70 | -5.4% | 2.22 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vizela | 37.0% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Academica | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vizela win | 7.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.3% | |
| Loss | 79.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | |
| 0-2 | 10.0% |
Vizela vs Academica stats
Vizela and Academica recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vizela and Academica season so far
Vizela record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Academica record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Vizela vs Academica head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Vizela vs Academica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 29.1%, away 28.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.20 | 3.22 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.10 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.19 | 3.36 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.25 |