Penafiel
vs
Feirense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penafiel
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.59.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Penafiel vs Feirense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penafiel vs Feirense
| Probability | Penafiel | Draw | Feirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.6% | 21.9% | 9.5% |
| Market | 47.8% | 28.1% | 24.1% |
| Final | 53.0% | 26.5% | 20.5% |
| Edge | +5.2% | -1.5% | -3.7% |
Why Penafiel
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penafiel below our published probability: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.0% per unit staked (our 53.0% × 2.00 − 1).
Penafiel vs Feirense match preview
Penafiel hosts Feirense in a Segunda Liga clash on November 2, 2026. Penafiel's recent form shows a strong trend with four wins in their last six matches, while Feirense struggles with six consecutive losses and a draw. According to our model, Penafiel has a 69% probability of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0, occurring at a rate of 15%.
The expected goals for Penafiel stand at 1.94, in stark contrast to Feirense's 0.59. The model suggests a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance for both teams to score. Despite Penafiel's favorable position, their head-to-head record against Feirense indicates they have yet to secure a win, with Feirense winning both of their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penafiel and Feirense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Penafiel and Feirense attack and defence ratings
Penafiel
Feirense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penafiel vs Feirense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 53.0% | 1.89 | +5.2% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 43.4% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 53.0% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Feirense | 20.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.0% |
| No | 61.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 43.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 31.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-1 | 10.0% |
Penafiel vs Feirense stats
Penafiel and Feirense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penafiel and Feirense season so far
Penafiel record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Feirense record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Penafiel vs Feirense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Feirense | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Penafiel | Feirense | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penafiel vs Feirense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 28.1%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.36 | 3.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.25 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.36 | 3.78 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.39 | 3.96 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 2.92 | 3.32 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .