AVS
vs
Moreirense
Garuda Lions Prediction: AVS
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
AVS vs Moreirense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AVS vs Moreirense
| Probability | AVS | Draw | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.0% | 28.9% | 17.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.0% | 28.9% | 17.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AVS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
AVS vs Moreirense match preview
AVS faces Moreirense in the Taça de Portugal, with model probabilities favoring AVS at 54%, while a draw stands at 29% and Moreirense at 17%. The expected goals suggest a strong advantage for AVS, with a projection of 1.47 compared to Moreirense's 0.72. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with a 15% probability.
In terms of recent form, AVS has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Moreirense, on the other hand, has struggled, managing just one win in their last six outings, alongside three losses and two draws. Historically, in their last two encounters, AVS has not secured a win, with Moreirense winning once and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AVS and Moreirense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.22
AVS and Moreirense attack and defence ratings
AVS
Moreirense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
AVS vs Moreirense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AVS | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AVS | 54.0% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Moreirense | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.7% |
| No | 59.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | AVS win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.3% |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.4% |
AVS vs Moreirense stats
AVS and Moreirense recent form
| AVS |
WWDLWD |
| Moreirense |
LDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AVS vs Moreirense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Moreirense | AVS | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2026-01-03 | AVS | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.