Penafiel vs AVS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penafiel vs AVS
| Probability | Penafiel | Draw | AVS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 27.8% | 25.9% |
| Market | 48.5% | 28.1% | 23.3% |
| Final | 48.0% | 28.0% | 24.0% |
| Edge | -2.2% | -0.4% | +2.6% |
Why Penafiel
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penafiel and AVS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Penafiel and AVS attack and defence ratings
Penafiel
AVS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penafiel vs AVS: result vs prediction
Penafiel 1 – 2 AVS
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penafiel vs AVS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 48.0% | 2.08 | -2.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 48.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| AVS | 24.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Penafiel vs AVS stats
Penafiel and AVS recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penafiel and AVS going into this match
Penafiel record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AVS record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penafiel vs AVS head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-03 | Penafiel | AVS | Segunda Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-09 | AVS | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penafiel vs AVS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 28.1%, away 23.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.28 | 4.02 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.25 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.35 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.28 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.37 | 4.39 |
| SBO | 1.93 | 3.04 | 3.54 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .