Penafiel
vs
Leça
0 – 1 Full time
| 28′ | Penafiel | ||
| 39′ | David Rebelo | ||
| 73′ | Penafiel | ||
| 86′ | Penafiel | ||
| 90′ | Leça |
Penafiel vs Leça overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penafiel vs Leça
| Probability | Penafiel | Draw | Leça |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 25.2% | 22.4% |
| Market | 56.7% | 24.5% | 18.8% |
| Final | 55.6% | 24.7% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.2% | +0.9% |
Why Penafiel
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penafiel and Leça expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Penafiel and Leça attack and defence ratings
Penafiel
Leça
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penafiel vs Leça: result vs prediction
Penafiel 0 – 1 Leça
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penafiel vs Leça markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 55.6% | 1.80 | -1.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 55.6% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Leça | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
Penafiel vs Leça stats
Penafiel and Leça recent form
| Penafiel |
LWWWWW |
| Leça |
WL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penafiel vs Leça head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Penafiel vs Leça odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.7%, draw 24.5%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.75 | 5.02 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.75 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.70 | 4.95 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .