Penafiel
vs
Leça
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penafiel
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Penafiel vs Leça overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penafiel vs Leça
| Probability | Penafiel | Draw | Leça |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 24.6% | 20.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 55.2% | 24.6% | 20.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Penafiel
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Penafiel vs Leça match preview
Penafiel enters this match against Leça with a strong recent form, having won four consecutive matches and drawn one. The team's expected goals sit at 1.87, indicating a solid attacking performance. In contrast, Leça's recent form shows a win followed by a loss, with an expected goals figure of 1.06, suggesting they may struggle to match Penafiel's offensive capabilities.
According to our model, Penafiel has a 55% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25% and Leça at 20%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Penafiel, with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penafiel and Leça expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Penafiel and Leça attack and defence ratings
Penafiel
Leça
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penafiel vs Leça markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 55.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Leça | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 47.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |