Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Mortágua vs Leça

0 – 2 Full time

39′Leça
58′Leça
Mortágua 25%
Draw 28%
Leça 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Mortágua vs Leça overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mortágua vs Leça

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMortáguaDrawLeça
Model41.3%30.6%28.1%
Market19.3%27.1%53.6%
Final24.8%28.0%47.2%
Edge+22.1%+3.4%-25.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mortágua ↓ / Leça → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 9% 1 11% 14% 2 8% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Mortágua and Leça expected goals

Mortágua 1.28
Leça 1.03

Total expected goals: 2.31

Mortágua and Leça attack and defence ratings

Mortágua

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Leça

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mortágua vs Leça: result vs prediction

Mortágua 0 – 2 Leça

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Mortágua vs Leça markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leça 47.2% 2.12 -25.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.3% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score No 52.3% 1.91 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.6% 1.40 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mortágua24.8%
Draw28.0%
Leça47.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.7%
Under 2.559.3%
Both teams to scoreYes47.7%
No52.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.8%
12 (either side)72.0%
X2 (draw or away)75.2%
Handicap -1Leça win11.2%
Push (exactly one goal)17.3%
Loss71.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
1-011.5%
0-011.2%

Mortágua vs Leça stats

Mortágua and Leça recent form

newest first
Mortágua DLWDW
Leça L

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.

Mortágua vs Leça head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Mortágua vs Leça odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.3%, draw 27.1%, away 53.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.77 3.30 1.69
Bet365 5.25 3.30 1.60
BetVictor 4.75 3.50 1.67
Betfair 4.60 3.60 1.65
Marathonbet 4.65 3.30 1.67
Pinnacle 4.42 3.29 1.68
William Hill 4.60 3.10 1.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.65 ▲ +0.10
X 3.30 —
2 1.67 ▼ -0.02

2 snapshots recorded, from .