Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Florgrade vs Portimonense

1 – 2 Full time

14′L. Ca
34′Portimonense
80′Portimonense
87′Florgrade
90′Florgrade
90′Portimonense

Parque Do Bucaquinho

Florgrade 21%
Draw 27%
Portimonense 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Florgrade vs Portimonense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Florgrade vs Portimonense

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFlorgradeDrawPortimonense
Model34.7%37.3%28.0%
Market16.1%23.8%60.1%
Final20.8%27.1%52.1%
Edge+4.7%+3.4%-8.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Portimonense

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Florgrade ↓ / Portimonense → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 21% 13% 1 16% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 79%
2+ goals 50%
3+ goals 23%
No goals 21%

Florgrade and Portimonense expected goals

Florgrade 0.88
Portimonense 0.76

Total expected goals: 1.64

Florgrade and Portimonense attack and defence ratings

Florgrade

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Portimonense

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Florgrade vs Portimonense: result vs prediction

Florgrade 1 – 2 Portimonense

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Florgrade vs Portimonense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Portimonense 52.1% 1.92 -8.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 77.2% 1.30 — —
Both teams to score No 67.5% 1.48 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.2% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.9% 1.39 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Florgrade20.8%
Draw27.1%
Portimonense52.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.522.8%
Under 2.577.2%
Both teams to scoreYes32.5%
No67.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.9%
12 (either side)72.9%
X2 (draw or away)79.2%
Handicap -1Portimonense win9.1%
Push (exactly one goal)19.0%
Loss71.9%
Correct score (top 3)0-020.6%
1-015.7%
1-114.3%

Florgrade vs Portimonense stats

Florgrade and Portimonense recent form

newest first
Florgrade WDL
Portimonense WWLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Florgrade vs Portimonense head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Florgrade vs Portimonense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.1%, draw 23.8%, away 60.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.94 3.82 1.54
Bet365 5.00 4.00 1.50
BetVictor 5.75 3.90 1.50
Marathonbet 6.00 3.82 1.52
Pinnacle 5.22 3.64 1.52
William Hill 5.50 3.50 1.50

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.