Segunda Liga · 2026-10-10T13:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 7

Amarante vs Portimonense

1 – 2 Full time

38′			Ruben Alves
43′			Jarleysom Ferreira de Amurim
46′			Diogo CabralEdney
50′			Yanis da Rocha
61′			Samuel Yépié YépiéWelinton Junior
65′			Dânio Djassi
71′			Edney
72′			Joao filipeArome Emmanuel Idache
75′			Welinton Junior
76′			Yanis da RochaJoao casimiro
79′			Ruben AlvesIan Custódio dos Anjos
79′			Simão SilvaKenneth Ikugar
79′			Ricardo joaoLeandro Ferreira
82′			Tiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira
90′			Tiago Filipe Prazeres FerreiraThauan Lara dos Santos
90′			Dânio DjassiZinho
90′			Goncalo cunha

Municipal de Amarante, AmaranteReferee: Flavio Miguel Gomes Azevedo Duarte

Amarante

36%

Draw

31%

Portimonense

32%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

5	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	1
48	Possession %	52
5	Corners	3

Amarante vs Portimonense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Amarante vs Portimonense

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Amarante	Draw	Portimonense
Model	39.0%	33.1%	27.9%
Market	35.7%	30.5%	33.8%
Final	36.5%	31.2%	32.3%
Edge	+0.8%	+0.7%	-1.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

85%

2+ goals

61%

3+ goals

33%

No goals

15%

Amarante and Portimonense expected goals

Amarante

1.12

Portimonense

0.90

Total expected goals: 2.02

Amarante and Portimonense attack and defence ratings

Amarante

Attack

1.01 +1%

Defence

0.95 -5%

Portimonense

Attack

0.82 -18%

Defence

0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Amarante vs Portimonense: result vs prediction

Amarante 1 – 2 Portimonense

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Segunda Liga

Penafiel v AVS — match page · 2026-10-09
Tondela v Torreense — match page · 2026-10-10
Leixoes vs FC Porto B — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Vizela vs Sporting CP B · 2026-10-10
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves · 2026-10-11
Farense vs Feirense · 2026-10-11
União de Leiria v Academica — match page · 2026-10-11
Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats · 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Amarante, previous: Ponte da Barca – Amarante, 2026-09-20
Amarante, next: Academica vs Amarante: odds and pick
Portimonense, previous: Castro Daire v Portimonense analysis
Portimonense, next: Florgrade vs Portimonense: odds and pick

Amarante vs Portimonense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Amarante	36.5%	2.74	+0.8%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	67.2%	1.49	—	—
Both teams to score	No	58.8%	1.70	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	68.8%	1.45	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	61.0%	1.64	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Amarante	36.5%
	Draw	31.2%
	Portimonense	32.3%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32.8%
	Under 2.5	67.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	41.2%
	No	58.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	67.7%
	12 (either side)	68.8%
	X2 (draw or away)	63.5%
Handicap -1	Amarante win	16.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.3%
	Loss	61.0%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.7%
	0-0	14.7%
	1-0	13.5%

Amarante vs Portimonense stats

Amarante and Portimonense recent form

newest first

Amarante	WDLWDL
Portimonense	WLLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Amarante and Portimonense going into this match

league record before kick-off

Amarante record

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.

Portimonense record

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Amarante vs Portimonense head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Amarante vs Portimonense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 30.5%, away 33.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.59	3.02	2.72
Bet365	2.55	3.00	2.70
BetVictor	2.50	3.00	2.70
Betano	2.65	3.00	2.77
Betfair	2.50	3.00	2.63
Dafabet	2.60	3.20	2.85
Marathonbet	2.59	3.02	2.72
Pinnacle	2.68	3.06	2.88
SBO	2.36	2.92	2.60
William Hill	2.50	2.80	2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.57 ▼ -0.02

X 3.00 ▼ -0.08

2 2.71 —

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-04T08:10:02Z.