Amarante
vs
Portimonense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Amarante
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Amarante vs Portimonense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Amarante vs Portimonense
| Probability | Amarante | Draw | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.0% | 33.1% | 27.8% |
| Market | 35.8% | 30.5% | 33.7% |
| Final | 36.6% | 31.2% | 32.2% |
| Edge | +3.2% | +2.6% | -5.8% |
Why Amarante
- The market prices Amarante below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Amarante vs Portimonense match preview
Amarante and Portimonense are set to face off in the Segunda Liga, with Amarante holding a 39% probability of winning compared to Portimonense's 28%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 33%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Amarante, with a 13% chance of occurring. In terms of goals, there is a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals, while both teams scoring is estimated at 41%.
Recent form shows Amarante with a mixed record of W-D-L-W-D-L, while Portimonense has recorded W-L-L-L-D-W. Expected goals indicate Amarante at 1.11 and Portimonense at 0.91, suggesting a tighter contest. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Amarante and Portimonense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Amarante and Portimonense attack and defence ratings
Amarante
Portimonense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Amarante vs Portimonense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 36.6% | 2.73 | +3.2% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 36.6% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Portimonense | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.2% |
| No | 58.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Amarante win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 61.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 13.5% |
Amarante vs Portimonense stats
Amarante and Portimonense recent form
| Amarante |
WDLWDL |
| Portimonense |
WLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Amarante and Portimonense season so far
Amarante record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Portimonense record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Amarante vs Portimonense head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Amarante vs Portimonense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 30.5%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.59 | 3.02 | 2.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 3.02 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 3.03 | 2.84 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 2.86 | 2.57 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .