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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Ovarense vs Os Marialvas

0 – 1 Full time

17′Os Marialvas
Ovarense 39%
Draw 26%
Os Marialvas 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Ovarense vs Os Marialvas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ovarense vs Os Marialvas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOvarenseDrawOs Marialvas
Model38.6%25.9%35.5%
Market———
Final38.6%25.9%35.5%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ovarense ↓ / Os Marialvas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Ovarense and Os Marialvas expected goals

Ovarense 1.59
Os Marialvas 1.54

Total expected goals: 3.13

Ovarense and Os Marialvas attack and defence ratings

Ovarense

Attack 1.50 +50%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Os Marialvas

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.62 -38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ovarense vs Os Marialvas: result vs prediction

Ovarense 0 – 1 Os Marialvas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Ovarense vs Os Marialvas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ovarense 38.6% 2.59 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.4% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.5% 1.57 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.8% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ovarense38.6%
Draw25.9%
Os Marialvas35.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%
Both teams to scoreYes63.5%
No36.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.5%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)61.4%
Handicap -1Ovarense win19.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss61.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.8%
2-18.6%
1-28.2%

Ovarense vs Os Marialvas stats

Ovarense and Os Marialvas recent form

newest first
Ovarense DW
Os Marialvas WDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Ovarense vs Os Marialvas head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Ovarense vs Os Marialvas odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.