Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
AD Fornos Algodres
vs
Os Marialvas
0 – 4 Full time
AD Fornos Algodres
26%
Draw
26%
Os Marialvas
48%
AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas
| Probability | AD Fornos Algodres | Draw | Os Marialvas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.9% | 26.5% | 47.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.9% | 26.5% | 47.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Os Marialvas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.19.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
55%
No goals
7%
AD Fornos Algodres and Os Marialvas expected goals
AD Fornos Algodres
1.19
Os Marialvas
1.68
Total expected goals: 2.87
AD Fornos Algodres and Os Marialvas attack and defence ratings
AD Fornos Algodres
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.47 +47%
Os Marialvas
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
0.71 -29%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas: result vs prediction
AD Fornos Algodres 0 – 4 Os Marialvas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Os Marialvas | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Fornos Algodres | 25.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Os Marialvas | 47.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Os Marialvas win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.5% |
AD Fornos Algodres vs Os Marialvas stats
AD Fornos Algodres and Os Marialvas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.