Primeira Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Casa Pia
vs
Santa Clara
0 – 1 Full time
| 18′ | José Tavares | ||
| 52′ | David Sousa | ||
| 54′ | Henrique AraújoFelipe Silva | ||
| 57′ | José TavaresJoao Vasconcelos | ||
| 67′ | Henrique Araújo | ||
| 68′ | Emanuel Moreira | ||
| 70′ | Tiago RibeiroLuis Fernando Santos Oliveira | ||
| 70′ | Vinicius lopesVitor Hugo Amorim de Assis | ||
| 72′ | Lawrence Ofori Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira | ||
| 73′ | Pedro RosasJoão Goulart | ||
| 77′ | Emanuel MoreiraHenrique Silva | ||
| 77′ | Brenner Lucas Goncalves SantosLéo Jacó | ||
| 79′ | Mohamed Salah El BoukammiriAymen Zouin | ||
| 80′ | Benjamin PauwelsEvans Maurin | ||
| 83′ | Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira | ||
| 90′ | Joao Vasconcelos | ||
| 90′ | Joao Vasconcelos | ||
| 90′ | Andre Geraldes | ||
| 90′ | Pedro Ferreira | ||
| 90′ | Gonçalo Paciência |
Casa Pia
21%
Draw
29%
Santa Clara
50%
Match stats
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 227 | Accurate passes | 413 |
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
| Probability | Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.5% | 28.8% | 57.8% |
| Market | 24.1% | 28.5% | 47.4% |
| Final | 21.4% | 28.5% | 50.0% |
| Edge | -2.7% | +0.1% | +2.6% |
Why Santa Clara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santa Clara below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
61%
3+ goals
33%
No goals
14%
Casa Pia and Santa Clara expected goals
Casa Pia
0.57
Santa Clara
1.46
Total expected goals: 2.04
Casa Pia and Santa Clara attack and defence ratings
Casa Pia
Attack
0.59 -41%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Santa Clara
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
0.66 -34%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara: result vs prediction
Casa Pia 0 – 1 Santa Clara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 50.0% | 2.00 | +2.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Casa Pia | 21.4% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Santa Clara | 50.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.7% |
| No | 65.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.2% | |
| Loss | 42.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 18.0% |
| 0-0 | 14.2% | |
| 0-2 | 13.9% |
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara stats
Casa Pia and Santa Clara recent form
| Casa Pia |
WLDLLL |
| Santa Clara |
DWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Casa Pia and Santa Clara going into this match
Casa Pia record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Clara record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
2Casa Pia wins
2Draws
3Santa Clara wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Casa Pia | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-24 | Casa Pia | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
| 2023-01-29 | Casa Pia | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-07 | Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2019-12-22 | Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Taça da Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.1%, draw 28.5%, away 47.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.15 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.20 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 4.10 | 3.30 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 3.35 | 2.06 |
| Marathonbet | 3.84 | 3.34 | 1.94 |
| Pinnacle | 4.01 | 3.33 | 2.06 |
| SBO | 3.65 | 3.16 | 1.93 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.90 ▼ -0.43
X
3.30 ▲ +0.05
2
1.98 ▲ +0.11
14 snapshots recorded, from .