Casa Pia
vs
Santa Clara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santa Clara
0 – 1 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
| Probability | Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.6% | 28.9% | 57.6% |
| Market | 21.2% | 28.3% | 50.5% |
| Final | 19.3% | 28.4% | 52.3% |
| Edge | -7.6% | +0.6% | +7.0% |
Why Santa Clara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santa Clara below the model: +7.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara match preview
Casa Pia faces Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga with a kickoff set for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 14% probability of a Casa Pia victory, while Santa Clara holds a 58% chance of winning, and a draw is at 29%. The expected goals suggest a low-scoring match, with Casa Pia projected at 0.58 and Santa Clara at 1.45. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 18% probability.
In terms of recent form, Casa Pia has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches (W-L-D-L-L-L), while Santa Clara has shown better performance with four wins in their last six outings (D-W-W-D-W-W). Historically, in their last two meetings, Casa Pia has not secured a win, with Santa Clara winning once and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Casa Pia and Santa Clara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Casa Pia and Santa Clara attack and defence ratings
Casa Pia
Santa Clara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 52.3% | 1.91 | +7.0% | 1.94 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Casa Pia | 19.3% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Santa Clara | 52.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.7% |
| No | 65.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.2% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 18.0% |
| 0-0 | 14.2% | |
| 0-2 | 13.9% |
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara stats
Casa Pia and Santa Clara recent form
| Casa Pia |
WLDLLL |
| Santa Clara |
DWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Casa Pia and Santa Clara season so far
Casa Pia record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Clara record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Casa Pia | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-24 | Casa Pia | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
| 2023-01-29 | Casa Pia | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-07 | Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2019-12-22 | Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Taça da Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.2%, draw 28.3%, away 50.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.42 | 3.46 | 1.94 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.25 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 3.25 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.80 | 3.35 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 4.40 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 4.50 | 3.35 | 1.93 |
| Marathonbet | 4.25 | 3.32 | 1.86 |
| Pinnacle | 4.57 | 3.50 | 1.82 |
| SBO | 3.69 | 2.96 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.20 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .