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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Alpendorada vs Mação

3 – 0 Full time

4′Alpendorada
5′Alpendorada
64′Alpendorada
Alpendorada 34%
Draw 22%
Mação 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Alpendorada vs Mação overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alpendorada vs Mação

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlpendoradaDrawMação
Model34.4%21.9%43.7%
Market———
Final34.4%21.9%43.7%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alpendorada ↓ / Mação → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 1 8% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 77%
No goals 3%

Alpendorada and Mação expected goals

Alpendorada 1.88
Mação 2.15

Total expected goals: 4.03

Alpendorada and Mação attack and defence ratings

Alpendorada

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Mação

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alpendorada vs Mação: result vs prediction

Alpendorada 3 – 0 Mação

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Alpendorada vs Mação markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mação 43.7% 2.29 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.5% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 75.6% 1.32 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.1% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.8% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alpendorada34.4%
Draw21.9%
Mação43.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.5%
Under 2.523.5%
Both teams to scoreYes75.6%
No24.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.3%
12 (either side)78.1%
X2 (draw or away)65.6%
Handicap -1Mação win26.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.2%
Loss55.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.9%
1-27.7%
2-27.3%

Alpendorada vs Mação stats

Alpendorada and Mação recent form

newest first
Alpendorada DLWW
Mação W

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Alpendorada vs Mação head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Alpendorada vs Mação odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.