Moreirense
vs
Estrela
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estrela
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Estrela is the favourite, not a value bet.
Moreirense vs Estrela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Moreirense vs Estrela
| Probability | Moreirense | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.0% | 27.0% | 32.9% |
| Market | 31.6% | 28.7% | 39.7% |
| Final | 33.7% | 28.3% | 38.0% |
| Edge | +2.1% | -0.4% | -1.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 38.0% × 2.45 − 1).
Moreirense vs Estrela match preview
In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Moreirense hosts Estrela with a projected probability of a win for Estrela at 42%, while Moreirense stands at 30% and a draw at 28%. The expected goals for Moreirense is 1.24, compared to Estrela's 1.50, indicating a competitive matchup. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Recent form shows Moreirense struggling with two losses in their last three matches, while Estrela has had a mixed bag of results, including two wins in their last five. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 52%, and both teams scoring is projected at 56%, suggesting an engaging contest with potential for multiple goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Moreirense and Estrela expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Moreirense and Estrela attack and defence ratings
Moreirense
Estrela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Moreirense vs Estrela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 38.0% | 2.63 | -1.7% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moreirense | 33.7% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Estrela | 38.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrela win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 67.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Moreirense vs Estrela stats
Moreirense and Estrela recent form
| Moreirense |
WLLDWL |
| Estrela |
LWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Moreirense and Estrela season so far
Moreirense record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Estrela record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
Moreirense vs Estrela head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Moreirense | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Estrela | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Moreirense vs Estrela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.6%, draw 28.7%, away 39.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.04 | 3.39 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.37 |
| Marathonbet | 2.92 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 3.05 | 3.28 | 2.40 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .