Maritimo
vs
Santa Clara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santa Clara
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.90.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Maritimo vs Santa Clara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maritimo vs Santa Clara
| Probability | Maritimo | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.7% | 24.4% | 58.8% |
| Market | 30.9% | 30.4% | 38.8% |
| Final | 27.3% | 28.9% | 43.8% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -1.5% | +5.0% |
Why Santa Clara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santa Clara below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.5% per unit staked (our 43.8% × 2.50 − 1).
Maritimo vs Santa Clara match preview
Maritimo faces Santa Clara in their upcoming Primeira Liga match, with probabilities showing Maritimo at 27% to win, a draw at 29%, and Santa Clara leading at 44%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring with an 11% chance. Expected goals suggest Maritimo will score 0.90, while Santa Clara is forecasted to net 1.86.
In terms of recent form, Maritimo has struggled, recording a sequence of L-W-L-D-L-L, while Santa Clara has shown better performance with L-W-D-W-W-D. The model indicates a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score, reflecting a potentially competitive match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Maritimo and Santa Clara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Maritimo and Santa Clara attack and defence ratings
Maritimo
Santa Clara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Maritimo vs Santa Clara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 43.8% | 2.28 | +5.0% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maritimo | 27.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Santa Clara | 43.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 0-2 | 10.9% | |
| 0-1 | 10.7% |
Maritimo vs Santa Clara stats
Maritimo and Santa Clara recent form
| Maritimo |
LWLDLL |
| Santa Clara |
LWDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Maritimo and Santa Clara season so far
Maritimo record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Santa Clara record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Maritimo vs Santa Clara head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Maritimo vs Santa Clara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.9%, draw 30.4%, away 38.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.14 | 3.19 | 2.50 |