Academico Viseu
vs
Rio Ave
Garuda Lions Prediction: Academico Viseu
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.71.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave
| Probability | Academico Viseu | Draw | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.9% | 22.4% | 11.7% |
| Market | 46.2% | 27.2% | 26.6% |
| Final | 51.1% | 26.0% | 22.9% |
| Edge | +4.9% | -1.2% | -3.7% |
Why Academico Viseu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Academico Viseu below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.4% per unit staked (our 51.1% × 2.12 − 1).
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave match preview
Academico Viseu enters this match with a strong recent form, having won their last six games, while Rio Ave's performance has been more inconsistent, with two wins and four other results in their last six matches. According to our model, Academico Viseu has a 51% probability of winning, while Rio Ave stands at 23%, suggesting a favorable outlook for the home side.
The expected goals for Academico Viseu are 1.96, compared to just 0.71 for Rio Ave, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the hosts. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, which aligns with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% likelihood of both teams scoring. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Academico Viseu and Rio Ave expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Academico Viseu and Rio Ave attack and defence ratings
Academico Viseu
Rio Ave
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academico Viseu | 51.1% | 1.96 | +4.9% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Academico Viseu win | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academico Viseu | 51.1% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Rio Ave | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Academico Viseu win | 41.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 34.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 1-1 | 10.6% |
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave stats
Academico Viseu and Rio Ave recent form
| Academico Viseu |
WLWWWW |
| Rio Ave |
LWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Academico Viseu and Rio Ave season so far
Academico Viseu record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rio Ave record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.2%, draw 27.2%, away 26.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.12 | 3.56 | 3.58 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.45 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.42 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.48 | 3.75 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.40 |