Arouca
vs
Nacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arouca
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.84.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Arouca vs Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arouca vs Nacional
| Probability | Arouca | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.5% | 21.5% | 13.0% |
| Market | 51.5% | 25.5% | 23.0% |
| Final | 55.0% | 24.5% | 20.5% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -1.0% | -2.5% |
Why Arouca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Arouca below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.4% per unit staked (our 55.0% × 1.88 − 1).
Arouca vs Nacional match preview
Arouca is expected to dominate their upcoming match against Nacional, with a 71% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, occurring with a 12% likelihood. Arouca's expected goals stand at 2.36, while Nacional's are significantly lower at 0.82. Recent form further supports Arouca's advantage, as they have secured three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Nacional has suffered six consecutive losses.
The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match is 62%, and there is a 51% chance that both teams will score. In their last two encounters, Arouca has won both matches against Nacional, who have yet to secure a victory in this head-to-head. Overall, Arouca appears well-positioned for success in this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arouca and Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
Arouca and Nacional attack and defence ratings
Arouca
Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arouca vs Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 55.0% | 1.82 | +3.5% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Arouca win | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 55.0% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Nacional | 20.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% |
| No | 49.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arouca win | 42.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 34.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.6% |
| 1-1 | 10.2% | |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
Arouca vs Nacional stats
Arouca and Nacional recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arouca and Nacional season so far
Arouca record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nacional record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Arouca vs Nacional head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Arouca | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Nacional | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arouca vs Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.5%, draw 25.5%, away 23.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.86 | 4.17 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.72 | 4.17 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.90 |