Nacional
vs
Academico Viseu
Garuda Lions Prediction: Academico Viseu
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.81.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Nacional vs Academico Viseu overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nacional vs Academico Viseu
| Probability | Nacional | Draw | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.2% | 29.6% | 50.1% |
| Market | 31.6% | 29.0% | 39.4% |
| Final | 28.8% | 29.1% | 42.1% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +0.2% | +2.7% |
Why Academico Viseu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Academico Viseu below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.4% per unit staked (our 42.1% × 2.48 − 1).
Nacional vs Academico Viseu match preview
Nacional faces Academico Viseu in the Primeira Liga with a challenging outlook based on recent performances. Nacional's recent form shows one win and five losses, while Academico Viseu has been in strong form, winning five of their last six matches. The probabilities from our model suggest a 22% chance for Nacional to win, a 30% chance for a draw, and a 49% chance for Academico Viseu to secure victory.
The expected goals indicate a disparity, with Nacional projected at 0.86 and Academico Viseu at 1.42. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a probability of 13%. Additionally, there is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nacional and Academico Viseu expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Nacional and Academico Viseu attack and defence ratings
Nacional
Academico Viseu
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nacional vs Academico Viseu markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academico Viseu | 42.1% | 2.37 | +2.7% | 2.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 28.8% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Academico Viseu | 42.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.4% |
| No | 56.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Academico Viseu win | 25.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Nacional vs Academico Viseu stats
Nacional and Academico Viseu recent form
| Nacional |
LWLLLL |
| Academico Viseu |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nacional and Academico Viseu season so far
Nacional record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Academico Viseu record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nacional vs Academico Viseu head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-09 | Nacional | Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-29 | Academico Viseu | Nacional | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-28 | Nacional | Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga | 3-2 |
| 2023-01-21 | Academico Viseu | Nacional | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-07 | Nacional | Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2021-12-29 | Academico Viseu | Nacional | Segunda Liga | 1-4 |
| 2020-01-05 | Academico Viseu | Nacional | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2018-02-18 | Academico Viseu | Nacional | Segunda Liga | 3-3 |
| 2017-09-10 | Nacional | Academico Viseu | Segunda Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nacional vs Academico Viseu odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.6%, draw 29.0%, away 39.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.06 | 3.32 | 2.48 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.41 |
| Marathonbet | 2.94 | 3.18 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 3.05 | 3.23 | 2.44 |
| SBO | 2.77 | 3.02 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .