Vitória SC
vs
FC Porto
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Porto
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.88.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Porto is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vitória SC vs FC Porto overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitória SC vs FC Porto
| Probability | Vitória SC | Draw | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.3% | 29.1% | 49.6% |
| Market | 18.7% | 23.7% | 57.7% |
| Final | 19.3% | 25.0% | 55.7% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +1.4% | -2.0% |
Why FC Porto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 55.7% × 1.68 − 1).
Vitória SC vs FC Porto match preview
Vitória SC faces FC Porto in the Primeira Liga with a probability model indicating a 21% chance of a home win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 53% chance for an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with a 12% probability. Vitória SC has an expected goals figure of 0.99, while FC Porto's expected goals stand at 1.41.
In terms of recent form, Vitória SC has recorded two wins, one loss, one draw, and two additional draws in their last six matches. Meanwhile, FC Porto has been more consistent, with four wins and two losses in their last six games. Historically, FC Porto has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Vitória SC.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitória SC and FC Porto expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Vitória SC and FC Porto attack and defence ratings
Vitória SC
FC Porto
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitória SC vs FC Porto markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 55.7% | 1.80 | -2.0% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitória SC | 19.3% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| FC Porto | 55.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 12.9% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Vitória SC vs FC Porto stats
Vitória SC and FC Porto recent form
| Vitória SC |
DWWLDL |
| FC Porto |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitória SC and FC Porto season so far
Vitória SC record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
FC Porto record
- They have won 9 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Vitória SC vs FC Porto head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Vitória SC | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-11 | FC Porto | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vitória SC vs FC Porto odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.7%, draw 23.7%, away 57.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.31 | 4.04 | 1.68 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 3.70 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.10 | 1.66 |
| Marathonbet | 5.10 | 3.88 | 1.61 |
| Pinnacle | 5.21 | 4.12 | 1.62 |
| SBO | 4.54 | 3.52 | 1.56 |
| William Hill | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .