Estoril
vs
Maritimo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estoril
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Estoril is the favourite, not a value bet.
Estoril vs Maritimo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estoril vs Maritimo
| Probability | Estoril | Draw | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.7% | 29.4% | 36.9% |
| Market | 45.5% | 27.1% | 27.4% |
| Final | 42.6% | 27.6% | 29.8% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +0.6% | +2.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (our 42.6% × 2.15 − 1).
Estoril vs Maritimo match preview
Estoril and Maritimo are set to face off in a Primeira Liga match on November 8, 2026. Estoril currently holds a 43% probability of winning, while Maritimo has a 30% chance, with a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Estoril, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for Estoril is 1.23, slightly lower than Maritimo's 1.30.
In terms of recent form, Estoril has struggled, recording six consecutive losses, while Maritimo has managed one win in their last six matches, alongside two losses and a draw. The model indicates a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance that both teams will score during the match. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estoril and Maritimo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Estoril and Maritimo attack and defence ratings
Estoril
Maritimo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estoril vs Maritimo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estoril | 42.6% | 2.35 | -2.9% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estoril | 42.6% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Maritimo | 29.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estoril win | 14.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 66.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
Estoril vs Maritimo stats
Estoril and Maritimo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estoril and Maritimo season so far
Estoril record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Maritimo record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Estoril vs Maritimo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Estoril vs Maritimo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.5%, draw 27.1%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.58 | 3.52 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.45 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.44 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.49 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 3.02 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .