Sporting CP
vs
Moreirense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting CP
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sporting CP is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sporting CP vs Moreirense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting CP vs Moreirense
| Probability | Sporting CP | Draw | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.0% | 21.4% | 14.6% |
| Market | 81.1% | 12.7% | 6.2% |
| Final | 76.8% | 14.9% | 8.3% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +2.2% | +2.1% |
Why Sporting CP
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.6% per unit staked (our 76.8% × 1.19 − 1).
Sporting CP vs Moreirense match preview
Sporting CP enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 77%, reflecting their recent form of three wins in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 2.16, suggesting a solid attacking performance, while they have a 60% chance of the match featuring over 2.5 goals. Moreirense, on the other hand, has a lower expected goals figure of 0.95 and has shown mixed form, with three wins in their last six games.
In their last two encounters, Sporting CP has dominated Moreirense, winning both matches without conceding. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Sporting CP, with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 55% chance that both teams will score, indicating potential for Moreirense to find the net despite their lower expected goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting CP and Moreirense expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.11
Sporting CP and Moreirense attack and defence ratings
Sporting CP
Moreirense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sporting CP vs Moreirense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting CP | 76.8% | 1.30 | -4.3% | 1.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.7% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting CP win | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting CP | 76.8% |
| Draw | 14.9% | |
| Moreirense | 8.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting CP win | 41.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 36.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Sporting CP vs Moreirense stats
Sporting CP and Moreirense recent form
| Sporting CP |
WWLLWW |
| Moreirense |
WWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting CP and Moreirense season so far
Sporting CP record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Moreirense record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Sporting CP vs Moreirense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Moreirense | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-22 | Sporting CP | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-18 | Sporting CP | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-05 | Moreirense | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-19 | Moreirense | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
| 2023-09-17 | Sporting CP | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2022-03-14 | Moreirense | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
| 2021-10-23 | Sporting CP | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-04-05 | Moreirense | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2020-11-28 | Sporting CP | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting CP vs Moreirense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 81.1%, draw 12.7%, away 6.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.15 | 9.30 | 18.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.13 | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.19 | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 7.70 | 15.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.15 | 8.51 | 14.87 |
| SBO | 1.15 | 5.99 | 9.64 |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 7.00 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .