Estrela
vs
Benfica
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benfica
0 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 0.98.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Benfica is the favourite, not a value bet.
Estrela vs Benfica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estrela vs Benfica
| Probability | Estrela | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.5% | 16.5% | 73.0% |
| Market | 9.3% | 15.4% | 75.3% |
| Final | 9.6% | 15.7% | 74.7% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.3% | -0.6% |
Why Benfica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 74.7% × 1.28 − 1).
Estrela vs Benfica match preview
Estrela faces Benfica in a Primeira Liga clash with a significant disparity in expectations. Estrela has a 9% chance of winning, while Benfica stands at 75%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, with an expected goals tally of 0.96 for Estrela and 2.62 for Benfica. Recent form shows Estrela struggling with two losses and a draw in their last five matches, while Benfica has been dominant, winning four of their last five outings.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 69%, and both teams to score has a probability of 58%. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Estrela has not secured a win or draw against Benfica, who has claimed victory in both matches. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estrela and Benfica expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.67
Estrela and Benfica attack and defence ratings
Estrela
Benfica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estrela vs Benfica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.6% | 1.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 9.6% |
| Draw | 15.7% | |
| Benfica | 74.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 25.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 52.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 27.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 0-3 | 8.3% |
Estrela vs Benfica stats
Estrela and Benfica recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estrela and Benfica season so far
Estrela record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benfica record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Estrela vs Benfica head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Benfica | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Estrela | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estrela vs Benfica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.3%, draw 15.4%, away 75.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 11.80 | 6.74 | 1.25 |
| Bet365 | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.25 |
| BetVictor | 9.50 | 5.75 | 1.22 |
| Betano | 9.75 | 6.00 | 1.28 |
| Betfair | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 |
| Dafabet | 10.00 | 6.40 | 1.27 |
| Marathonbet | 10.50 | 6.00 | 1.23 |
| Pinnacle | 10.27 | 6.61 | 1.23 |
| SBO | 7.34 | 5.13 | 1.23 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .