Famalicao
vs
Arouca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Famalicao
1 – 0 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Famalicao is the favourite, not a value bet.
Famalicao vs Arouca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Famalicao vs Arouca
| Probability | Famalicao | Draw | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.0% | 28.7% | 42.3% |
| Market | 38.7% | 29.9% | 31.4% |
| Final | 36.3% | 29.6% | 34.1% |
| Edge | -2.4% | -0.3% | +2.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 36.3% × 2.60 − 1).
Famalicao vs Arouca match preview
Famalicao faces Arouca in a Primeira Liga clash, with Famalicao holding a 40% probability of winning, while Arouca stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Famalicao, occurring at a rate of 7%. Expected goals for Famalicao are 1.14, compared to Arouca's 1.43, indicating a potentially competitive match.
Recent form shows Famalicao with a record of L-W-L-L-W-D, while Arouca has been in better shape, recording W-W-W-W-D-L. In their last ten encounters, Famalicao has secured 3 wins, Arouca has also achieved 3 wins, and there have been 4 draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Famalicao and Arouca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Famalicao and Arouca attack and defence ratings
Famalicao
Arouca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Famalicao vs Arouca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Famalicao | 36.3% | 2.76 | -2.4% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Famalicao | 36.3% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Arouca | 34.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% |
| No | 46.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Famalicao win | 12.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 71.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.9% |
Famalicao vs Arouca stats
Famalicao and Arouca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Famalicao and Arouca season so far
Famalicao record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arouca record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Famalicao vs Arouca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Famalicao | Arouca | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Famalicao | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Arouca | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Arouca | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-09 | Famalicao | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-23 | Arouca | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 3-2 |
| 2023-09-22 | Famalicao | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-03 | Famalicao | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-10 | Arouca | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 4-1 |
| 2022-01-31 | Famalicao | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Famalicao vs Arouca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 29.9%, away 31.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 3.28 | 3.12 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.13 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.15 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 3.15 | 2.99 |
| Pinnacle | 2.60 | 3.13 | 3.07 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 3.04 | 2.86 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .