Santa Clara
vs
GIL Vicente
Garuda Lions Prediction: Santa Clara
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Santa Clara is the favourite, not a value bet.
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente
| Probability | Santa Clara | Draw | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.0% | 31.6% | 19.4% |
| Market | 42.3% | 30.5% | 27.2% |
| Final | 43.9% | 30.8% | 25.2% |
| Edge | +1.7% | +0.3% | -1.9% |
Why Santa Clara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.71.
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (our 43.9% × 2.29 − 1).
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente match preview
In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Santa Clara faces GIL Vicente with a probability of 47% for a Santa Clara win, 31% for a draw, and 22% for a GIL Vicente victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 14%. Santa Clara's expected goals stand at 1.32, while GIL Vicente's is lower at 0.82.
Recent form shows Santa Clara with two losses followed by three matches without defeat, while GIL Vicente has a mixed record of two wins, one draw, and a recent loss. In their last two encounters, both teams have each secured one victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 36%, and both teams scoring is projected at 42%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Santa Clara and GIL Vicente expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Santa Clara and GIL Vicente attack and defence ratings
Santa Clara
GIL Vicente
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 43.9% | 2.28 | +1.7% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 43.9% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| GIL Vicente | 25.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.1% |
| No | 61.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 51.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.2% |
| 0-0 | 14.8% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente stats
Santa Clara and GIL Vicente recent form
| Santa Clara |
WLLWDW |
| GIL Vicente |
DLWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santa Clara and GIL Vicente season so far
Santa Clara record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GIL Vicente record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Santa Clara | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-03 | GIL Vicente | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 30.5%, away 27.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 3.24 | 3.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.10 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.06 | 3.59 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 2.83 | 3.02 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .